Responding to this recent theory reminded me of a question that always comes to my mind whenever I’m reminded of the fact that the producers had originally planned to have Jack die at the end of the very first episode.
Since they clearly had a series-spanning plot outline from the very beginning (not details, but major points), I wonder which character(s) they originally had planned to play some of the parts that Jack’s character now does.
Obviously they also evolve the show and the characters as it progresses, so much of the Jack stuff might not have been a part of the original concept at all, but he’s such a prominent figure that I can’t help but assume that some parts of his story must have been a part of that up front design, and they must (I’m assuming) have had an idea of which character(s) would fit those parts since Jack wasn’t originally supposed to be around.
Ben mentions Jack’s decision costing the lives of 40 people, but I don’t think he’s talking about Jack’s group.
I believe he’s talking about the inhabitants of the island that have been there for a long time – the “others” like Richard, etc. Since I believe that the island’s healing factor is what keeps them from aging (because it’s constantly healing them as their bodies break down during the normal aging process), some of the “others” who have been there for a long time could easily be very, very old.
If they are forced to leave the island, they might die immediately once they get out of “range” of its ability to heal them. This could even apply to some of the Losties as well, especially ones like Rose who we know had a terminal disease before coming to the island.
In any event, I suspect that the boat people will coax some of the people willing to be “rescued” (Jack and his group) into leaving just by telling them that they’re rescuing them. They may possibly even manipulate them into helping them battle the “others” and subdue Locke, on the pretext that they need to do that in order to get free of the island.
My bet is that during this battle, Jack knocks Locke out and they eventually triumph over the “others”, and leave the island thinking that they were victorious. Then, once they are clear of the island and will not be able to find it again, it becomes clear to Jack that it was a mistake. Either people start dying outside of the island’s protection and/or Locke wakes up and clues Jack in to what’s happening, and/or he finds out how Whidmore is going to abuse the power of the island.
I don’t necessarily think we can assume that Walt’s appearance means that he’s there on the island again as a real, physical person. So far he’s no different than any of the other appearances of people on the island who may or may not be real and/or dead.
Heck, with Walt we even have precedence for him appearing when he wasn’t really there, and you also have precedent with Locke seeing and interacting verbally with people who have formerly moved on (such as Boone).
I’ll have to revise my theory expressed in this post from last week a bit in light of tonight’s events, but I still believe that Ben has been trying to prevent Locke from taking his place in terms of having the closest connection to the island, it’s just that now I’m tacking on another reason for it: Ben knew that Locke could not make the hard choices needed to protect the island, and he was proven right tonight by Locke not being able to kill Jack in order to do it.
In the future, that is…
My theory is that it’s Locke who was in the coffin. The way I see it going down is this:
Whidmore (or whoever is on the boat) fakes a rescue in an attempt to take control of the island in order to learn / exploit its secret properties. Jack and the others cooperate with them, even to the point of disabling Locke who will still be fighting to prevent it. Whidmore carts everyone (including an unconcious / incapacitated Locke) off the island, which they think they want at the time, until they get home and Locke wakes up and reveals to them that it was a mistake to let the island fall into the hands of Whidmore.
Perhaps he only tells Jack, or perhaps Jack is the only one who believes him, but either way, it’s fairly obvious that Jack knows now that his decision in tonights episode was wrong.
PS – I called the “flash forward” bit in the opening sequence, and believed it for the most part throughout the episode. My faith did waver a bit when Jack called for them to go get his dad upstairs, but I did quickly realize that he was just saying that because he wasn’t in his right mind at the time.
I think it’s pretty clear that a lot of the things going on around the island are all about Ben trying to maintain his position as the leader. I think that he was chosen to be raised up as a leader after he was embraced as a kid because he somehow had the ability to connect with the island (speak to “Jacob”, whatever that means).
I think that it goes back to the moment he killed his dad (and arranged or participating the killing of the others); I suspect that from that moment on, his island connection began to wane, and he had to increasingly rely on manipulation to remain in his place as the leader, since was loosing his connection to the island.
I suspect that since the crash (or shortly after) he has always seen Locke as a big threat to his position. I think this is why he has tried to manipulate Locke into doing (or not doing) things throughout the show; the latest example of this is his attempt to coerce Locke into killing his own father (just as Ben did himself), in hopes that doing so will cause Locke’s “island connection” to suffer as Ben’s has.
To go even further out on a limb, I’d suggest that the pregnancy problems are actually Ben’s doing. He sees that children somehow have more potential for the “island connectivity” factor, and he therefore (either consciously or subconsciously) knows that it’s in his best interest to have no new kids born on the island, because they would threaten his position. I think he may also have targeted Juliet to come “fix” the problem specifically because believed that she would fail.
[Background: Dan and I were at his daughter's birthday party today, and spoke with someone who is going to a party at Matthew Fox's house tonight, so on the off chance that she remembers the URL we told her and he sees this site...]
Good job on the show! If you read some of my posts on here, you may notice that I occasionally get frustrated by Jack’s apparent lack of willingness to demand answers to questions that his character must wonder about, but don’t take it personally. I think I may have even mentioned at some point something about Sayid pulling Jack and Juliet’s toenails out with pliers until they told him what they knew, but (again) nothing personal. 
But seriously, it would be awesome to hear your thoughts on the site. Not that I have any expectation of that happening, especially since most of the stuff we post about are theories and speculations that obviously no one involved with the show would be allowed to confirm or deny, but it would still be cool, nonetheless.
Keep up the good work.
So I’m guessing the smoke monster is somehow tied to the island to the degree that it can’t “fly” up high enough to go over that electric boundary fence.
This would seem to be the only explanation for why the fence would stop it (assuming that it did, and it wasn’t an act), and it would fit with other appearances such as when it tried to drag Locke into a hole that it appeared to be “reaching up” from.
The only part that would not make sense would be the footage from the beginning of the show where people say that it shows the smoke monster flying up and destroying the plane. I don’t remember this at all, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen it. The only thing I did see was a frame-by-frame image of the smoke monster going through the turbine right before it blew up, but that was when it was on the ground. They may have shown a similar shot while the plane was still in the air as well, but I don’t remember it. Even if they did though, I think since it was not visible to the unaided viewer (in normal speed) it’s safe for them to ignore that and decide that it didn’t happen, since they’ve never referenced it in the show itself.
Before the episode airs tonight, I thought I should post my thoughts on last week’s:
I am a bit nervous about Juliet joining the original Losties group on the beach, just because I think it might strain the whole “not asking questions when they should be asked” thing too far, beyond the breaking point in my opinion. The show has always had that frustrating aspect where people don’t share information with each other or ask enough questions when any normal people in those situations would, but I can put up with it to some degree since it’s necessary to maintain the suspense / mystery. However, Juliet going back to camp with them is too far IMHO.
At the end of that episode, Sayid (one of my favorite characters) SHOULD have said “No, actually we’re not going back to camp yet. If you are honest about being a part of our group, first we’re going to sit down and you’re going to tell us EVERY SINGLE THING YOU KNOW about the island, the others, etc. since you’ve been here with them for years.” There’s no logical reason why this conversation shouldn’t happen, and if it doesn’t VERY soon, I’m going to be disappointed.
The other credibility issue for me (and i don’t remember whether this was last week or the week before) was Sawyer falling for Hurley’s “nice guy con”. I knew that’s exactly what was happening the minute Hurley started that conversation, and to say that Sawyer fell for it when he’s supposedly a grade A con man is not believable.
I’m still spoiler free leading up to tonight, and looking forward to the episode. Not even watching the “next on Lost” previews has been one of the best decisions in watching this show. I think I would have enjoyed the last several episodes much less if I had seen the previews.
My latest theory involves the explanation for Locke’s healing, and its temporary nature – depending on his “relationship” with the island at any point in time.
Basically, it goes like this: through whatever manner the island is able to interact with the past, it can influence things to happen. Some believe that past events were orchestrated to bring (at least some of) the people on that plane to the island.
My theory is based on Locke’s dad being brought to the island the same way. The kicker is that when the island reached back and altered the past to direct him towards the island, it altered the timeline by causing him not to be there to push John out of the window, so therefore he can walk.
Now, this depends on it actually being Locke’s dad (instead of a fake / illusion) on the island, which I’m still not sold on. There are also other holes, like the other healings, but those may have similar explanations. The Sun and Jun one isn’t really a verified healing anyway, since there are clear questions as to whether Jun is the real father. As for Rose, she probably is associated with Dharma anyway, so she probably can’t be trusted.
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