Well, from the finale it would certainly seem that all the theories about specific people being set up to be on the plane by Dharma/Hanso/whoever are a bit harder to believe. I’ve been saying for a while (here and other places) that I don’t tend to believe any theories that involve certain people being manipulated into being on that plane for the purpose of getting them on the island, because the crash appears to have been a total accident.
Now that I’ve said that, I also have to acknowledge that there are significant clues which do point to that kind of conspiratorial explanation, with more than a few of the people who ended up on the plane. So, to argue against myself in the previous paragraph, here are two ways that I believe they could maintain the “targeted people” theories in light of what we saw in the finale:
- Whoever is orchestrating the conspiracy and putting certain passengers in place on the flight knew (via some method of viewing the future) that the crash would happen and planned accordingly. This would allow the crash to still be an accident (as depicted in this episode), but also allow for the conspiracy theories.
- Kelvin was a part of the conspiracy, and drew Desmond out of the hatch at that particular point in time, knowing that the plane was coming and intentionally causing the crash. (I think this one is weaker plot-wise, but at least relies less on the type of “supernatural” explanation that the first one would imply.
I agree that all signs point to the people on the plane being completely random. For example:
1. Jack had a very had time getting on the plane with his father’s coffin. He had to practically break down in front of the Oceanic employee at main terminal to convince her.
2. Charlie switched seats when he went to the first class bathroom to do drugs. The plane started hitting turbulence and he strapped himself into a seat that wasn’t his own.
3. Sun wasn’t supposed to be on the plane. She had planned to escape from Jin and meet a car outside the terminal.
There are so many variables…would a plane crash really be the best way to get specific people to a remote island? For example, a briefcase hit the marshall who was escorting Kate and resulted in his being knocked out and later seriously injured in the crash. What if the case had hit Kate or another would-be survivor? What if someone had decided to use the bathroom shortly before the plane broke apart? What if someone switched seats at the last minute, preferring an aisle to a window or a rear seat to a front? What if someone had forgotten to buckle his seat belt and was sucked out the back of the plane?
Since less than 50 people survived the crash of a plane that probably sat over 200, there would have to be better ways to guarantee the arrival of certain people on the island. Certainly an organization as powerful as Dharma/Hanso could figure out safer ways to make sure they got who they wanted.